Though it is probably resilient against the political costs of war and can secure some inputs of military power at scale through rationalisation, Russia will struggle to generate many of the foundations of military power. Here's the money quote you can extract from the RUSI piece:
The RUSI article in particular notes that the method of conscription in Russia is pants-on-heads backwards, and means any previously conscripted soldiers who return to service after a lengthy time off might as well be untrained. However, more modern capabilities will be hard to replace, and this will entail the regression of the Russian military to a 20th-century force." ".large stockpiles of many categories of weaponry from shells to armoured vehicles and older Soviet-era cruise missiles could enable the Russians to rely on expedients such as cannibalizing capabilities or using older systems in lieu of more modern ones. So maybe ammunition stockpiles are deep enough that Russia isn't going to have its own version of the UK's 1915 Shell Crisis, but they'll have to start dipping into older ammo reserves and that's never a good thing for gun crews or the units they're trying to support.Īs someone on r/CredibleDefense said, either way Ukrainian Strikes Cause Moscow to Re-Think Munitions Supply and Logistics (two parts)Īccording to this article, Russia may be facing a major ammunition crisis if the war drags on much longer, exacerbated by the reliance on railways as supply arteries. Two different takes on supply and warfighting sustainability.
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